Islamabad, October 21, 2021 (PPI-OT):The Arms Control and Disarmament Centre (ACDC) at the Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad (ISSI) organised a webinar on “Emerging Global Military Trends and National Security: Challenges and Options” on October 21, 2021. Eminent speakers included Dr Asma Shakir Khawaja, HOD, Department of Strategic Studies, National Defence University (NDU), Dr Ivan V. Danilin, Associate Professor, Moscow State Institute of International Relations, Russia, Air Vice Marshal (Retd.) Faaiz Amir, former Vice-Chancellor Air University, and Dr Zafar Nawaz Jaspal, Professor SPIR, Quaid-e-Azam University.
Malik Qasim Mustafa, Director ACDC-ISSI in his introductory remarks said that a careful review of military spending trends reflects that all the major powers are involved in strategic competition and investing in their weapons and military modernisation programmes. Major states are engaged in a new arms race and spending more and more on modern and lethal weapons technologies. India, the third-largest military spender in the world wanted to modernise its armed forces and has concluded major defence deals with Russia, the US and Israel. Some major powers have already withdrawn from key international arms control treaties and norms and have shifted to warfighting doctrines and postures.
Ambassador Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry, Director General ISSI, said that four main trends are apparent. There are incentives for an arms race, a multipolarity of powers where every power is guided by unilateralism and other powers react. The second trend is pre-emption versus deterrence. States build capabilities for pre-emption that has increased the potential for conflicts. Also, realpolitik has trumped all ethics. Last but not least, there is greater reliance on emerging technologies especially Artificial Intelligence (AI). This will increase the gap between the haves and have-nots. Overall, he concluded that it looks like a grim picture.
Dr Asma Shakir Khawaja, talking about “Emerging Military Trends and Reconceptualisation of National Security” emphasised non-traditional military trends in security. She said that the trend of information warfare, which is increasingly sophisticated, creates a fog of war. The second trend is the use of cyber technology as a tool of warfare that has the potential to shut down offensive and defensive systems and command and control systems. She also talked about the proliferation of hypersonic missiles that have changed deterrence equations and increased chances of escalation. National security is not only about able to persuade the adversary by force. Coercive methods of warfare have been replaced by soft methods. National security conceptualisation is multidimensional now – military and non-military, traditional and non-traditional.
Dr Ivan V. Danilin said that digital technology presently is 4-5 % of global GDP. The civilian high-tech sector can affect the security of a state. It is important to know that the globalisation of the digital sector. The globalised structure is a matter of regional and global security and features prominently in the policies of states. High technology markets conflicts are now real. The US sanctioned 5G technology developed by China. There are trade and economic wars among major powers. There is rising securitisation of technology. China and the US’s digital markets are a zero-sum game. There is a competition where the adversary state is prevented from gaining dominance. He said that we cannot afford to get into the digital arms race.
Air Vice-Marshal (Retd.) Faaiz Amir talking about “Emerging Military Trends and Future of Warfare” said that interstate and intrastate conflicts show a decline. However, the space between war and peace is not empty. He further said that the lines between foreign and domestic, national and international wars have been blurred. Disruptive technologies are having an impact on warfare. Future warfare will use speed, information warfare and AI. Thus, the decision-making process in warfare will require greater speed. Kinetics engagements will be less and will depend on the capacity of the state, the prevalence of democracy, ethnicity and economic growth as well as military capacity. Modern warfare is more on the lines of Hybrid warfare.
Dr Zafar Nawaz Jaspal said that military modernisation is about more than hardware, it is about organisational reforms, command, control and doctrines. Pakistan armed forces have been going through up-gradation. Pakistan has to keep in mind the adversary’s capabilities. India has been working on integrated offensive and defensive systems. India had invested in offensive and defensive missile capability as well as hypersonic missiles with the help of the US and Israel. Talking about the options for Pakistan, he said that there is a need to modernise and be competent in air, land, sea, space, cyberspace and AI. Pakistan needs to invest in technologies like hypersonic missiles, cruise and ballistic missiles, cybersecurity, IA, area-denial capabilities and space capabilities.
He emphasised the need to work with China and attract new partners like Russia to keep pace with Indian modernisation. Ambassador Khalid Mahmood, Chairman Board of Governors, ISSI, concluded by saying that new technologies are causing concerns in the civil and military domains. It also has an impact on issues of deterrence and conduct of warfare. As the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, said “whoever dominates in IA would control the world.” These technologies have changed the character of the battlefield. On one hand, these technologies have benefits but on the other hand, they are also disruptive. They are leading to arms races. He emphasised the need to develop regulations to control emerging new technologies through international cooperation.
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